Battery Storage Investment Calculator — Ukraine · Sources
Sources of the battery storage model
The model rests on 39 public sources. Each entry shows the date it was checked or published and what the model takes from it. Where no current public value exists, the input is a documented assumption — listed at the end. How the inputs are used is described in the methodology.
Price data
The revenue rests on the hourly day-ahead prices published by the Market Operator of Ukraine, up to 30 Sep 2026, converted to euros at the National Bank’s daily rates. The site does not republish the hourly series: it shows only results derived from it — the precomputed revenue library and the price statistics on the Revenue tab. Neighbouring markets come from Energy-Charts under CC BY 4.0.
Prices
- Market Operator (Ukraine): day-ahead market prices, hourly30 Sep 2026 · Hourly day-ahead prices of 2025 and of the 12 months to September 2026, from which the revenue library and the price statistics are derived. The series itself is not published here. Inputs: Price year.
- Market Operator (Ukraine): study of energy storage economics (April 2026)1 Oct 2026 · Cross-check of day-ahead margins and costs; auxiliary load of 1% of inverter power (stress); network tariff regimes. Inputs: Own consumption 1% of power.
- National Bank of Ukraine: official EUR/UAH exchange rates30 Sep 2026 · Daily rates that convert the price series to euros; 2025 average 47.09 UAH per euro.
- Energy-Charts (Fraunhofer ISE): day-ahead prices of Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Poland (CC BY 4.0)2 Oct 2026 · Daily top-two-hour spreads of the neighbouring EU markets in 2025 (average €140.52 per MWh against €181.75 in Ukraine): where the spread paths converge. Inputs: Spread path.
Reserve contract (Ukrenergo special auctions)
- Market Rules (NEURC resolution 307), edition of 11 June 20262 Oct 2026 · Special auctions for ancillary services: awards of 13 months to five years at a euro price fixed at the National Bank’s average rate of the auction month; a performance security of €30,000 per MW; a start up to four months late against a 20% top-up, a quarter of which is kept each month; availability penalties at twice the fee for aFRR; offset of a balancing provider’s claims and debts within the same month; payment terms. Inputs: Ukrenergo reserve contract; Term of the second contract; Contract term; After a damaging strike; Failures a year without relief; Penalty window per failure; Balancing energy paid after; No offset of balancing claims; Availability fee paid after; Balancing non-compliance fee; Other loss of the contract.
- Transmission System Code (NEURC resolution 309), edition of 1 September 20262 Oct 2026 · aFRR must hold full activation for at least one hour each way; a provider’s certificate is valid for 60 months. Inputs: Full activation to hold.
- Ukrenergo: price caps for ancillary services, 20272 Oct 2026 · Cap of 1,339.82 UAH per MW-hour for symmetric aFRR, unchanged since 2022: about €25 at the rate of the auction month. The model keeps it for later auctions as a scenario. Inputs: Contract price; Price of the second contract.
- Ukrenergo: ancillary services market, winners of the special auctions3 Oct 2026 · Special auctions for aFRR on 22 August and 24 December 2024 and 27 May 2025 (for FCR on 15 August 2024), priced in euros at the average rate of the auction month; none since. Inputs: Ukrenergo reserve contract.
- Ukrenergo (official Telegram channel): final results of the special auction of 27 May 20253 Oct 2026 · Symmetric aFRR at a weighted average of 786.95 UAH per MW-hour, about €17 at the rate of May 2025: the default price of a new award. Inputs: Contract price.
- Ukrenergo (official Telegram channel): results of the special auction of 24 December 20243 Oct 2026 · Symmetric aFRR at an average of 1,263.08 UAH per MW-hour, about €29 at the rate of December 2024. Inputs: Contract price.
- Ukrenergo (official Telegram channel): results of the special auction of 22 August 20243 Oct 2026 · Symmetric aFRR at a weighted average of 1,219.41 UAH per MW-hour, about €27 at the rate of August 2024. Inputs: Contract price.
- NEURC resolution 1294 of 3 August 2026: wartime relief for ancillary-service providers2 Oct 2026 · From 1 September 2026, documented emergency outages and grid constraints are relieved of non-compliance fees: the model counts only failures without relief. Inputs: Failures a year without relief.
- NEURC: open data on the electricity market during the war2 Oct 2026 · Balancing energy of 2025: up at 8,482 UAH per MWh and down at 662 UAH against a day-ahead average of 5,292 — the “balancing prices of 2025” switch (all products, so an upper bound for aFRR). Inputs: Balancing prices of 2025.
Technology
- Lazard: Levelized Cost of Energy+ (storage), 20251 Oct 2026 · Round-trip efficiency of 87–91% for two-hour systems; extended warranty costs. Inputs: Round-trip efficiency.
- NLR Annual Technology Baseline 2025: utility-scale battery storage1 Oct 2026 · Round-trip efficiency of 85% including cooling and controls (the base node); pack life 20–30% shorter than cell life (the degradation stress). Inputs: Round-trip efficiency; Faster wear (× 1.3).
- NREL BLAST-Lite battery degradation models (BSD-3)1 Oct 2026 · Calendar and cycle fade of an LFP cell at 25 °C: 1.1% × years^0.526 and 1.55·10⁻⁴ × EFC^0.828. Inputs: Faster wear (× 1.3).
- ESS News: Making BESS warranties work — contracts vs reality (Sep 2025)1 Oct 2026 · A manufacturer warranty of about 548 cycles a year at 0.5C: the 1.5 cycles a day cap. Inputs: Cycle limit.
Investment costs
- SolarPower Europe: European Battery Market Outlook 20261 Oct 2026 · DC containers at €64–77 per kWh and AC systems at €90–110 per kWh delivered to Europe (Q2 2026): the DC block and the augmentation price. Inputs: Add modules in year 10; Investment cost.
- Prozorro tender UA-2026-08-06-011836-a: battery storage in Kharkiv15 Sep 2026 · Benchmark of about €169 per kWh without construction and connection.
- Interfax-Ukraine: 50 MW / 131 MWh storage project and its loan1 Oct 2026 · Benchmark of about €257 per kWh all-in, with a loan of about 70% of cost.
Grid, tariffs and market rules
- NEURC resolution 2231 of 30 Dec 2025: connection fees1 Oct 2026 · Connection fee of 935 UAH per kW at 110 kV; 110 kV line at €76.5k per km. Inputs: Grid connection.
- Law of Ukraine 4834-IX: network tariffs for energy storage (transitional provisions, item 9-2)2 Oct 2026 · Tariffs on net withdrawal until 30 Apr 2037 for storage in operation by 30 Apr 2028 with the documents filed in time; on gross withdrawal afterwards (model assumption). Inputs: Delay to commercial operation.
- NEURC: distribution tariffs from 1 Aug 20261 Oct 2026 · Class 1 distribution tariff of 628.37 UAH per MWh (Kyiv region network).
- Interfax-Ukraine: transmission tariff from 1 Aug 20261 Oct 2026 · Transmission tariff of 928.45 UAH per MWh; with dispatch, 1,047.09 UAH per MWh assumed for 2027.
- Market Operator (Ukraine): fee for the day-ahead and intraday markets1 Oct 2026 · 6.88 UAH for each MWh bought and each MWh sold, plus 4,669.71 UAH a month.
- Rules of the day-ahead and intraday markets (NEURC resolution 308)1 Oct 2026 · Buyers prepay; sellers are paid before delivery: the small working capital of the model.
War risk
- Insurance Business Association of Ukraine (NASU): war-risk insurance market overview, Q1 20261 Oct 2026 · War-risk premiums of 7–9% a year in central Ukraine: the 8% premium behind the expected loss and the insurance switch. Inputs: Expected war loss; War-risk insurance; Insurer found.
- Cabinet of Ministers resolution 1541 (2025): compensation of war-risk insurance premiums2 Oct 2026 · The state refunds the premium above 1% of the sum insured, up to 5 million UAH a company a year, while the budget lasts. Inputs: State refunds premium.
Financing and currency rules
- euribor-rates.eu: current EURIBOR rates30 Sep 2026 · 6-month EURIBOR of 3.074% on 30 Sep 2026. Inputs: Interest rate, all-in.
- BlueGamma: EURIBOR swap rates1 Oct 2026 · 7-year swap of 3.56%: with a 4.5% margin, the fixed all-in rate of 8%. Inputs: Interest rate, all-in.
- Interfax-Ukraine: EBRD expects 30–40% sponsor equity in storage projects1 Oct 2026 · The 60% cap on debt. Inputs: Maximum debt share.
- Damodaran: country risk premiums, July 20261 Oct 2026 · Country risk premium for Ukraine of 14.85%: the 15% equity hurdle in euros sits between half and all of it. Inputs: Equity hurdle rate (€).
- NBU resolution 18 (2022): currency restrictions, item 14(46)2 Oct 2026 · Dividends abroad up to €1 million a month per company; debt service to international financial institutions is free. Inputs: Money out at the end.
Tax and customs
- Tax Code of Ukraine2 Oct 2026 · Corporate income tax of 18%, loss carry-forward, depreciation lives, 5% withholding tax on dividends to an EU parent under the treaty, VAT of 20%. Inputs: Penalties deductible for tax.
- Customs Code of Ukraine: import relief for batteries and inverters2 Oct 2026 · No import VAT or duty on lithium-ion batteries and inverters imported before 1 Jan 2029; transformers pay VAT, refunded.
Exchange rates and inflation
- National Bank of Ukraine: Inflation Report, July 20261 Oct 2026 · Ukrainian inflation of 8.2%, 8.3% and 5.6% (2026–28), 5% afterwards.
- UNIAN: the hryvnia rate in the 2027 state budget1 Oct 2026 · UAH per US dollar from the budget declaration; with EUR/USD 1.16, the euro path 51.5 / 54.6 / 57.0 / 58.8 (2026–29), then +2.9% a year. Inputs: Weaker hryvnia (+10%).
- ECB staff macroeconomic projections, September 20261 Oct 2026 · Euro area inflation of 3.0%, 2.5% and 2.1% (2026–28), 2% afterwards: the real-euro conversion.
- IMF Country Report 26/188: Ukraine1 Oct 2026 · Inflation cross-check and the timing of the easing of currency restrictions (the model keeps them for the whole life).
Assumptions
These inputs have no current public value that fits the case. The base case uses a documented assumption, often next to a public reference point; the sensitivity and the alternative cases show how much each one matters.
Spread path; Currency of the spread path; Duration; Add modules in year 10; Realism factor; Optimiser’s fee; Ukrenergo reserve contract; Awarded capacity; Contract price; Second contract after the first; Price of the second contract; After a damaging strike; Failures a year without relief; Liquidity reserve; Penalties deductible for tax; Balancing energy paid after; Recovery margin; Peak-day activation; Activation up; Activation down; Left after netting; Balancing claims collected; Balancing non-compliance fee; Other loss of the contract; Standing load of the reserve; Investment cost; Grid connection; Expected war loss; War-risk insurance; Senior loan; Interest rate, all-in; Target DSCR, lender’s case; Maximum debt share; Money out at the end; Weaker hryvnia (+10%); Equity hurdle rate (€); Project discount rate.