Wind Farm Investment Calculator · Sources
Sources of the wind farm model
The base case rests on 32 public sources, all checked on 30 Sept 2026. Each entry shows the date of the source and the inputs it supports. Where no current public value exists, the input is a documented assumption — listed at the end. How the inputs are used is described in the methodology.
Tenders and the EEG
- Bundesnetzagentur: onshore wind tender of 1 Aug 2026Dated 17 Sept 2026 · Supports: Award price (Zuschlagswert)
- Bundesnetzagentur: ceiling prices 2026Dated 16 Dec 2025 · Supports: Tender ceiling (Höchstwert)
- Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG 2023), consolidated textDated 18 Dec 2025 · Supports: Site in the EEG Südregion; Receivable days; Municipal payment (§ 6 EEG)
- Bundestag, 24 Sep 2026: first reading of the EEG 2027 bill (two-sided premium)Dated 24 Sept 2026 · Supports: Two-sided premium (EEG 2027 draft)
Power prices and market values
- EEX Phelix-DE baseload futures (via Tacto, 25 Sep 2026; power2market, 31 Aug 2026)Dated 25 Sept 2026 · Supports: Futures 2027; Futures 2028; Futures 2029
- Long-term power price scenarios (Ariadne 70–80, Prognos 73–86, Agora 65–101 €/MWh)Dated 8 Oct 2025 · Supports: Long-term power price
- Netztransparenz: annual market values (JW) Wind an LandDated 30 Sept 2026 · Supports: Wind capture factor
- SMARD (Bundesnetzagentur): negative day-ahead prices 2023–2025Dated 5 Jan 2026 · Supports: Output at negative prices; Time with negative prices
- Netztransparenz: marketing cost deduction 2026 (0.228 ct/kWh)Dated 1 Jan 2026 · Supports: Direct-marketing fee
- Energie & Management PPA index: onshore wind, 2-year PPAs (53–74 €/MWh)Dated 9 Apr 2026 · Supports: After the EEG period; PPA price
Costs, site and energy yield
- Deutsche WindGuard: Kostensituation der Windenergie an Land – Stand 2025Dated 2 Dec 2025 · Supports: Turbine rating; Operating life; Hub height; Reference yield; Direct-marketing fee; Total capex; Turbines incl. transport & installation; Foundations; Roads & crane pads; Grid connection; Development & planning; Compensation measures; Other capex; Fixed opex, years 1–10; Maintenance; Management; Insurance; Other opex; Land lease; Loan term; Maximum gearing; Cost of equity
- Fachagentur Wind und Solar: site quality of turbines with a tender awardDated 30 Jun 2025 · Supports: Site quality (Gütefaktor)
- Fachagentur Wind und Solar: Status des Windenergieausbaus an Land, H1 2026Dated 23 Jul 2026 · Supports: Turbine rating; Construction period
- Deutsche WindGuard for LEE NRW: full-load hours of onshore turbines (availability, losses)Dated 27 May 2026 · Supports: Availability
- Hamilton et al. (LBNL, Joule 2020): how does wind project performance change with age?Dated 1 May 2020 · Supports: Degradation
- Pryor et al., Wind Energy Science 3 (2018): inter-annual variability of windDated 1 Oct 2018 · Supports: Uncertainty, 1 year; Uncertainty, 10 years
- top agrar (Sep 2026): what land leases wind farms can still affordDated 26 Sept 2026 · Supports: Land lease; Minimum lease per turbine
- Bundestag research service WD 5-3000-087/25: decommissioning costs of wind turbinesDated 23 Oct 2025 · Supports: Decommissioning cost
- Hessian Landtag Drucksache 21/2671: decommissioning security = hub height × €1,000Dated 9 Sept 2025 · Supports: Hub height
- Solarserver (17 Sep 2026): generator grid fees under BNetzA AgNes, corridor 4–7 €/kW/yrDated 17 Sept 2026 · Supports: Generator grid fee
Financing
- KfW programme 270 – rate sheet and MerkblattDated 29 Sept 2026 · Supports: Interest rate; Loan term; Grace years; Repayment; Commitment fee
- Community wind-farm prospectuses 2023–2026 (DSCR, reserves, fees, gearing)Dated 29 Aug 2023 · Supports: Guarantee fee; Target DSCR (P50); Debt service reserve; Upfront fee
- Energie-Atlas Bayern: banks usually finance 75–85% of the investmentDated 1 Feb 2026 · Supports: Maximum gearing
- Solarserver (17 Sep 2026): 18 banks warn about financing risks of the EEG 2027 draftDated 17 Sept 2026 · Supports: Revenue the bank counts on
Tax and VAT
- GewerbesteuergesetzDated 29 Jun 2026 · Supports: Legal form; Trade-tax multiplier (Hebesatz)
- Körperschaftsteuergesetz § 23Dated 4 Feb 2026 · Supports: Legal form
- Einkommensteuergesetz §§ 6, 7, 10d (provisions, depreciation, loss offset)Dated 29 Jun 2026 · Supports: Declining-balance depreciation
- BFH IV R 46/09 (14 Apr 2011): wind-park assets depreciated over 16 yearsDated 14 Apr 2011 · Supports: Depreciation period
- Umsatzsteuergesetz §§ 12, 18 (VAT rate, returns)Dated 29 Jun 2026 · Supports: VAT refund lag
Inflation and valuation
- Deutsche Bundesbank: macroeconomic projections, June 2026Dated 12 Jun 2026 · Supports: Inflation 2026; Inflation 2027; Inflation 2028
- European Central Bank: 2% inflation target; staff projections September 2026Dated 10 Sept 2026 · Supports: Inflation from 2029
- Fraunhofer ISE: Stromgestehungskosten Erneuerbare Energien (July 2024)Dated 1 Jul 2024 · Supports: Operating life; Total capex; Cost of equity; Real WACC for the LCOE; Nominal WACC
Assumptions
These inputs have no current public value that fits the case. The base case uses a documented assumption, often next to a public reference point; the tornado and the scenarios show how much each one matters.
- Project & timeline
- Number of turbines; Financial close
- Energy yield
- Other extra losses; Uncertainty, 1 year; Uncertainty, 10 years; Output at negative prices
- Revenue (EEG & market)
- Long-term power price; Wind capture factor; Direct-marketing fee; Receivable days; Continue § 6 payment after the EEG
- Capex
- Other capex; Contingency; VAT refund lag
- Opex
- Maintenance (years 21+); Management (years 21+); Insurance (years 21+); Other opex (years 21+); Land lease; Minimum lease per turbine; Decommissioning cost; Guarantee fee
- Financing
- Target DSCR (P50); Target DSCR (P90); Revenue the bank counts on; Lock-up DSCR; Covenant DSCR; Upfront fee; Equity first
- Tax
- Trade-tax multiplier (Hebesatz)