Battery Storage Investment Calculator
Ukraine · day-ahead marketBase caseFictional project “Zoria Storage” · 50 MW / 100 MWh (2 h) · Kyiv region, Ukraine · revenue from day-ahead trading only
Illustrative calculation — not investment, tax or legal advice. Fictional case. Prices to 30 Sep 2026.
What would it take?
Day-ahead trading alone does not earn the hurdle rate.
Investor NPV reaches zero if daily price spreads are 1.96 times the reference path.
In 2029 that is an average gap between the two dearest and the two cheapest hours of a day of about €330 per MWh, instead of €168 (2025 euros).
For comparison, 2025: Ukraine €182, neighbouring EU markets €141.
Not in this version: daily reserve auctions, the balancing market, FCR and upward-only aFRR. A multi-year special-auction contract for symmetric aFRR is an option — see below.
- 4-hour battery−2.0%
- High spread path1.2%
- No war loss−0.9%
- 4 h + high path + 0.85 + war loss 1.6%13.7%
With a reserve contract
Option — not in the base caseThe investor NPV reaches zero at a contract price of €30.96 per MW-hour.
That is above the 2027 auction cap of €25.08, so no bid could win it. At that price the company runs short of cash; the NPV stands, marked.
At €17, about the latest round’s price: investor NPV −€10.7m.
Contract tested: 40 MW of symmetric aFRR for 60 months from Mar 2028, no second contract; the loan is sized again for every price. This battery holds up to 45 MW of reserve.
Searched on a grid of €1 per MW-hour; another crossing between grid points cannot be ruled out.
How the money flows
In 2029, the first full year, buying in the cheapest hours and selling in the dearest with perfect foresight would earn €127k per MW. A real trader achieves 75% of that and pays the optimiser 10% of what it earns: €86k per MW remains.
Operating costs, network tariffs and the expected war loss take €34k per MW, which leaves EBITDA of €52k per MW.
Building the battery costs €23.1m (€462k per MW). The lender looks at the low price path and lends €4.1m — 17% of the cost; the owner pays in €20.3m.
The investor earns −6.9% a year in euros against a hurdle of 15%.
Revenue and costs by year
€ million, nominal. Costs include grid tariffs, the expected war loss (or insurance) and replacements.
- Net revenue
- Operating costs
- Grid tariffs
- War risk
- Replacements and decommissioning
- Cash for debt service
Model and text: Igor Sabodakha · Prices: Market Operator (Ukraine), derived statistics only; exchange rates: National Bank of Ukraine · Methodology S1.3 · contract R3.1 · revenue library v2